Meteoclima

Portale di meteorologia e climatologia

 Max Tides del 3 Feb che disporrà un JS favorevole a neve anche in pianura 3/4>6 febbraio

 

La ricerca scientifica sulle variazioni del Tides (forza mareale) generata dalla forza gravitazionale risultante Luna>Sole>Terra, viaggia spedita e si sta ulteriormente approfondendo all’estero, dove, quanto prima, uscirà un articolo scientifico in inglese specifico, che sarà pubblicato a livello mondiale.

Un imponente fiume d’aria come il flusso troposferico, presente circumpolare a quote medie da 5 a 12 km e con una massa di notevole spessore, non sfugge certo alla legge di gravitazione universale di Newton, e il Tides si conferma la causa principe di ogni modifica di velocità e di direzione del jet Stream nella libera atmosfera.

 Central England Temperature Anomalies "Physicst Dr. Clive Best"

Posted on January 4, 2015 by Clive Best

The Met Office reports  that 2014 was the warmest year in the 354 year series of temperature measurements in central england. Ed Hawkins also has a post on this.

So is it true and what does it really mean?

annual mean temperatures since 1990 to 2014. The red line is a long term trend fit described below.

Well 2014 does indeed scrape through  above 2006 as the warmest year, but the quoted measurement error is 0.1C.  So statistically it would be more correct  to say that it is  60% probable that 2014 broke the record. However in this post I want to understand better the full time series and identify a  long term warming trend in CET.

This gives a rather different narrative than the simplistic one of just CO2 induced warming of the UK climate.

 

The data shows that there has definitely been a slow but continuous warming trend since 1660 until the present time staring well before the industrial revolution. Furthermore there is no obvious evidence of any CO2 induced acceleration in warming as emissions increased post 195o.

So let’s do something a little different and calculate temperature anomalies relative to that long term trend instead of relative to 1961-1990. The result of this procedure is shown below

 

Relative to the 350 year long term trend there is no real evidence for any recent anthropogenic warming. Now let’s simply put a spline through the anomaly data to see if there are  shorter time scale trends.>>>>>>>

READ THE REST>>>>link >>Clive Best

 

 

AR5 Attribution Studies

 

Just how reliable is the IPCC AR5 advice to policy makers?

The recent IPCC report stated that climate scientists are 95-100% certain that the observed temperature rise since 1850 is anthropogenic. The headline attribution statement in Chapter 10 was

“It is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in GMST from 1951 to 2010.The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period.”

World political leaders are basing policy on the validity of this statement, which is entirely based on comparing CMIP5 models to global surface temperature data. These ‘fingerprinting’ studies are described in chapter 10, which I find all but impossible to comprehend. The underlying assumption in AR5  is that natural climate variability has essentially played no role in warming since 1950. However is this actually true ?

Figure 1 shows a comparison between the ensemble of CMIP5 models and observations.

Agreement until 2000 would appear to be reasonably good. However we then read in Chapter 9 Box 9.1 that in reality:

Model tuning aims to match observed climate system behaviour and so is connected to judgements as to what constitutes a skilful representation of the Earth’s climate. For instance, maintaining the global mean top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy balance in a simulation of pre-industrial climate is essential to prevent the climate system from drifting to an unrealistic state. The models used in this report almost universally contain adjustments to parameters in their treatment of clouds to fulfil this important constraint of the climate system.

So the models are tuned so as to describe past observations. Furthermore periods of cooling are explained by volcanoes which are simulated by something called ‘EMICS’ – Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity up until 2005. Please don’t ask me what EMICS are but there is also no doubt in my mind that these are also tuned so that  aerosols can then match the global temperature response to volcanic erruptions such as  Pinatubu!

Science of Doom has written a detailed analysis of AR5 attribution studies and even he is not convinced.  He writes:

 

Chapter 10 of the IPCC report fails to highlight the important assumptions in the attribution studies. Chapter 9 of the IPCC report has a section on centennial/millennial natural variability with a “high confidence” conclusion that comes with little evidence and appears to be based on a cursory comparison of the spectral results of the last 1,000 years proxy results with the CMIP5 modeling studies.

 

He proposes an alternative summary for Chapter 10 of AR5:>>>>>>>

READ THE REST>>LINK PHYSICS Dr.CLIVE BEST

 

Arrivo della neve a quote molto basse come in pianura dal 26 e 29 dic e sensibile flessione termica.

 

L’inverno è entrato ufficialmente dal punto di vista astronomico dal 22 Dicembre ma con una situazione atmosferica indubbiamente mite in quota caratterizzata da minime basse giusto per inversioni termiche o massime basse per nebbie persitenti nei fondi valle e pianure interne.

Una situazione termica temperata e gradevole per una stagione invernale meteorologica e climatica che stava dando l’illusione di un Inverno che si sarebbe protratto non all’altezza del periodo sia in questo fine 2014 come anche per il 2015.

Oramai in rete come nei notiziari televisivi, eravamo bombardati da informazioni climatiche inerenti a temperature fra le più calde del secolo  (come sempre catastrofismo puro e gratuito) con profezie di un inverno 2014-15 destinato a soccombere ad una persistenza di aria mite sopramedia con neve destinata a rimanere assente ovunque come sui rilievi, con un periodo Natalizio ipotizzato tutto “in camicia”.

Martedì, 23 Dicembre 2014 00:00

CO2 Thermagedon ?

Scritto da

CO2 Thermagedon ? Dr.Clive Best

Posted on December 21, 2014 by Clive Best link>http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=6337

What is the worst damage that increased Carbon Dioxide could possibly cause on earth?The  answer is  surprisingly little  (ignoring hypothetical ‘feedbacks’) !

So now let’s imagine the most extreme case possible. What   if CO2 levels were somehow to rise 300 times higher than current levels reaching crazy levels like 1%? Just how hot would the earth then get ?

So really not so bad after all! The maximum possible CO2 greenhouse effect on earth is about 13 deg. C.

These calculations are based on a line by line ‘radiative transfer’ code covering the  dominant 15 micron absorption band described here.

So what is the problem of anthropogenic global warming – if any?

Image 1*

For 99.9% of earth’s 4 billion year climate history CO2  never has been a problem. On the contrary CO2 has helped to keep the earth’s temperature just right for life to flourish. In reality CO2 is a wonderful stabilising feedback that counteracts  external  ‘dangerous’ forcings on climate, and will continue to do so as long as life continues to flourish.

CO2 levels in the earth’s atmosphere normally react to changes in climate. They naturally regulate atmospheric CO2 by  responding to changes in ocean temperature. It is basically only now  that CO2 levels have increased before temperature, with the possible exception of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) event 50 million years ago. Anthropogenic CO2 ‘climate change’ is less than a blink in the eye.

Geological  evidence shows that during the PETM, CO2 levels rose by about 3 times more than the most pessimistic levels imaginable today, even  if humans were to burn all available fossil fuels on earth. Yet during PETM  temperatures only rose by just 5C. Furthermore it is entirely possible that the PETM excursion in CO2 levels was not due to some volcanic belch of CO2,  but instead was indeed the result of some external astronomical forcing such as a supernova, which CO2 levels then reacted to as a response.

So we need to keep things in perspective regarding (catastrophic) anthropogenic climate change. Yes human activity will most likely result in some small warming but its effect will naturally be  rather limited.

It may even turn out to be a blessing in disguise because increased CO2 levels now may likely delay the onset of the next ice age which otherwise is due to start around now. Another ice age would be orders of magnitude more catastrophic.

Dr.Clive Best                                                                                           Image 2*

http://clivebest.com/blog/

Image 1*

CO2 greenhouse effect for concentrations up to 0.1 C. Shown are the direct surface temperature responses under ‘business as usual’ policies  untileventually  fossil fuels are exhauted.

Image 2*

Saturation of the narrow CO2 15 micron lines into the Stratosphere ensures that total greenhouse warming is limited to 13C.

 

 

In arrivo il grande freddo dopo la parentesi Africana sciroccale con differenze di 15° negativi.

 

La situazione fisico/matematica attuale (ultimo weekend di Novembre) vede la presenza di componente del Jet Stream in affondo sul mediterraneo centro-occidentale, con conseguente richiamo sciroccale molto mite in area Italiana.

Una costante ripetuta in questo piovosissimo e mite autunno 2014 che ha generato anche forti piogge e notevoli danni alluvionali, come sempre esaltate da dissesti idrogeologici, per l’incuria dell’essere umano, ed esaltate da  selvagge urbanizzazioni eseguite senza il minimo rispetto del microclima.

L’analisi e la riflessione sul Jet Stream convalida una componente troposferica (JS) invadente e perseverante verso le basse latitudini a livello mondiale, che ha caratterizzato  costanti affondi di Aria fredda in Europa verso il continente nordAfricano.

Domenica, 16 Novembre 2014 00:00

Tides and the Jan 5th storm 2014

Scritto da

Tides and the Jan 5th storm 2014

 

 

In this post I look at how exceptionally strong tides over the first few days of January 2014 could have played a role in the severe storm that hit the UK on the 5-6 January.

 

Meteociel.fr provide twice daily (midnight and midday) pressure maps of the polar regions which show how the polar Jet Stream changes rather well. The Atlantic storms last winter were all spawned in a region near off Nova Scotia where warm tropical air meets cold polar air creating instability. Did high spring tides play a role in triggering these storms? The video below shows an animation of the horizontal tractional forces acting on the Jet Stream as spring tides sweep through the Atlantic. Maximum spring tides were experienced 3-6 January which also led to coastal flooding on UK shores.

Early january saw the strongest tides of 2014. The figure below shows the relative magnitude of the combined solar/lunar gravitational tides. At the equinoxes spring tides at new moon and full moon  tend to be roughly equal, whereas in winter it is new moon tides that dominate. The chart below was prepared by Roberto Madrigali
TIDES-STORM-AND-RAIN2014

If we look in more detail at the January storm we see that large tides sweeping across the Atlantic may have affected the unstable convergence of warm tropical air and cold polar air east of Canada. This was where the very low pressure January storm was spawned.>>>>>>>>

READ THE REST>>LINK PHISICIST CLIVE BEST

 

LINK TV9 TELEMAREMMA IN STREAMING

 

CLIKKARE su "LINK TV9 TELEMAREMMA IN STREAMING" PER SEGUIRE LE PREVISIONI METEO IN DIRETTA SU METEO9 DI TV9 A CURA DI Roberto Madrigali

PER GLI ORARI DEI MOLTI PASSAGGI METEO, CONSULTARE GLI ORARI SUL PORTALE TV9 A METEO9!!!

 

 

 ANALISI e PREVISIONE:  Campo depressionario intenso per la consueta insistenza della ingerenza del JS, assai  invadente rispetto ad anni passati,  per un nuovo periodo climatico comandato dalla forza gravitazionale che ha avuto un altro picco significativo, favorendo il disturbo in azione sul Polar Vortex e Jet Stream (ricerca scientifica docet).  NUOVO peggioramento con aria FREDDA POLARE che sta entrando nuovamente ad ovest della Sardegna, favorendo un respiro sudoccidentale con aria umida e tempo piovoso autunnale, con temperature che si mantengono sovente miti, per l'azione del JS che PER IL MOMENTO contribuisce a richiamare masse di aria miti ma umide sull'Italia, con tempo grigio e piovoso, alternato a brevi pause stabilizzanti. Aspettiamoci nuove piogge in questi giorni con avvicinamento di depressione sul mediterraneo per il weekend, con circolazione favorevole a precipitazioni più diffuse e attive ma non di forte intensità. Questa depressione sarà la responsabile del primo richiamo artico sull'Italia in arrivo intorno il 6/8 di Dicembre, per cambio di circolazione atmosferica e blocking, innescato dal TIDES. Arrivo di prima fase fredda invernale significativa!

. Una considerazione: EFFETTO TROPICALIZZAZIONE una informazione climatica fantasiosa e scorretta! non abbiamo una risalita della fascia subtropicale generalizzata dovuta ad un GW fantasioso, ma solo un processo di sempre più ingerenza ed invadenza dell'aria fredda verso SUD, con conseguente maggiore contrasto e energia potenziale. In più spieghino i mass-media e presunti esperti sul clima, come fa ad esserci una tropicalizzazione del clima con aumento del pack ANTARTICO e ARTICO dovuto ad aria sempre più fredda ai Poli e sempre più frequenti incursioni di aria fredda e molto fredda artica verso SUD! esatta informazione climatica ai minimi storici sui massmedia ed ecco perché urge una maggiore informazione e cultura nelle scuole e processo di sensibilizzazione corretta informativa sui massmedia.

 

Roberto Madrigali

team Explora-esperto meteorologia e clima

 

Giovedì, 09 Ottobre 2014 00:00

NO GLOBAL WARMING FOR 18 YEARS 1 MONTH

Scritto da

John Christy, director of Essc, "the Earth System Science Center", and expert on the physics of the atmosphere. 
Christy was one of the main speakers at the IPCC: "The Earth's temperature has remained stable, with no evidence of hypothetical global warming for 18 years. It is a fact and there are a few comments to make about it "

 

"prova tangibile della inesistenza di un processo presunto di riscaldamento globale antropico, confermato non solo da questa rilevazione termica ufficiale proveniente da 14 strumenti presenti su satelliti  in orbita terrestre, (con il compito preciso di studiare clima), ma anche osservando la situazione del pack in Antartico e in Artico. In Antartico situazione veramente allarmante, dove si registra la presenza di un "forte avanzamento  del pack",  specie in questi ultimi anni, che sta polverizzando record su record!

 

 

 
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