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Could the moon have played a role in UK’s heat wave ?

An ‘Omega’ pattern of Jet Stream Rosby waves developed in early July dragging hot air up from Spain. This  coincided with a full moon with maximum summer tides.

20150701-jetstream-heatwave-France-Spain-England

Jet stream flow on 2 July 2015

I am no meteorologist but even I can understand how this ‘Omega pattern’ in the Jet Streams  must drag hot Spanish/N. African up air over the  UK.  So let’s look at the ECMWF charts from  the neap tide on June 25 and the full moon tide on Feb 3rd.

25th June - neap tide

25th June – neap tide

A  full moon generates the largest tides in the northern hemisphere in summer, whereas a new moon dominates in winter.

Full moon spring tide

Having studied this for about a year I am convinced that statiscally the data now prove that there is an effect, particlularly in winter.

Full moon spring tide Feb 2-3

So how could the Jet Stream flow possibly be disturbed by an increasing atmospheric tide? The main effect of tides is the tractional (horizontal) N-S component which is unaffected by gravity. The rotation of the earth generates a variable torque whose strength depends on the lunar cycle of neap and spring tides.

 Having studied this for about a year I am convinced that statiscally the data now prove that there is an effect, particlularly in winter.

Dr. Clive Best link articolo Could the moon have played a role in UK’s heat wave ?

 

 

 

In arrivo una prima seria crisi per l’estate meteorologica: comanda sempre la Luna e il Jet Stream

 

Vi ricorderete sicuramente dei proclami dei mass media inneggianti poco tempo fa, ad una esplosione estiva dirompente con caldo e stabilità che sarebbe dovuta durare quasi tutta l’estate, con valori di temperature sempre più roventi.

Come sempre la solita esaltazione climatica mirata ad enfatizzare la storiella fantasiosa del GW antropico, che tanti soldi mondiali e nazionali sta bruciando inutilmente per una ricerca sul clima infruttuosa e priva di rigore scientifico.

L’ambiente va sempre distinto dal clima e non possono assolutamente interferire. IL clima ha le sue regole del tutto indipendenti dal problema ambientale e il rigore scientifico sul clima e la meteorologia va affrontato al di fuori dell’aspetto antropico

Per capire il grande errore (voluto?) delle comunità scientifiche mondiali legate all’IPCC, seguite e amplificate a dismisura anche dalle comunità scientifiche nazionali, basta fare un minimo di riflessione osservando il clima del passato.

Sabato, 30 Maggio 2015 00:00

The Global Warming Hiatus" Dr. Clive Best

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The Global Warming Hiatus

Global surface temperatures have essentially remained static since 1998 – a record el Niño year. The hiatus in land surface warming is real, unexpected, and puzzling. Recent anomaly data are shown below.

Comparison of CRUTEM4, CRUTEM3 and GHCN V3C

Comparison of CRUTEM4, CRUTEM3 and GHCN V3C. Error bars are those quoted for CRUTEM3.

Until 2010  CRUTEM3 was the IPCC reference land temperature data, and was used for the IPCC 4th assessment report in 2007. It is still updated and shows 1998 as the warmest year with no warming trend since then. GHCN V3C is  in agreement with that conclusion. CRUTEM4 was released in 2010, and the main difference to CRUTEM3 was the addition of 628 stations near the Arctic where warming has been strongest. GISS also added a significant number of new Arctic stations. This sampling effect alone has moved the land temperature anomaly to slightly warmer values post 2000.

Map-stations

The blue dots show locations of the 176 stations that were removed in the transition from CRUTEM3 to CRUTEM4. The red dots shows the location of the  628 stations that were added

In arrivo una diminuzione termica poderosa e neve sulle Alpi fra venerdì e sabato, con temporali e precipitazioni diffuse da nord a Sud.

 

La situazione atmosferica sta evolvendo verso un energico peggioramento sull’Italia, in ingresso per la giornata di venerdì, che provocherà un coinvolgimento atmosferico anche per buona parte del sabato, per poi concludersi gradualmente dal Centro-Nord per domenica 17 Maggio.

Il Jet Stream , il dominus dei cambiamenti climatici mondiali, dopo aver enfatizzato una nuova invadenza di aria calda dal NordAfrica prevista al suo culmine in questi prossimi due giorni del 13/14 maggio, tenderà a trasportare una massa di aria fredda oceanica in piena area italica.

Questa incursione peggiorativa del flusso troposferico con annessa aria polare, si scatenerà con un onda di Rossby aperta in successiva chiusura a Cut-off, nelle giornate del venerdì 15 e 16 maggio, scatenando piogge e temporali localmente forti, e crollo termico  di oltre 15°.

Addiruttura lo zero termico sarà previsto sulle Alpi a quote prossime ai 1300mt con la +4° sempre a 1300mt prevista in ingresso in Appennino centrosettentrionale, ma anche il Sud non sarà di certo risparmiato dal peggioramento repentino più autunnale che primaverile, che distribuirà freddo e piogge diffuse anche di forte intensità.

Finalmente annuncio con soddisfazione l'uscita dell'aggiornamento in italiano cartaceo e digitale del libro "Il futuro della terra è scritto nella Luna" EDIZIONE AGGIORNATA, dove sono inseriti ben 5 documenti del fisico e climatologo mondiale inglese Dr. Clive Best con cui ho il prestigio e l'onore di collaborare da un anno nella nostra ricerca scientifica climatica e meteorologica sul Tides/Jet Stream/Polar Vortex/AO index con importanti ripercussioni scientifiche meteorologiche e climatiche! una edizione aggiornata con Youcanprint  che nell'occasione esce con una copertina ancora più accattivante e abbellita, per dare a tutti un documento unico e imperdibile che completa la collana con la prima edizione uscita con Aracne. Infatti è un libro aggiornato  che risulta essenziale per chi ha già acquistato il primo, poiché completa la collana sulla ricerca sul Tides/JS/AOindex etc. ,una nostra ricerca scientifica approfondita  con dati, grafici e spiegazioni fisico/astronomiche ineluttabili, che arricchiscono  la parte di approfondimento scientifico della pubblicazione, dove è riportato anche l'anticipazione di una nostra futura pubblicazione di articolo scientifico in inglese a livello globale, mirato per le comunità scientifiche internazionali. Questa nuova edizione del libro sarà anche imperdibile per chi ancora non ha letto il primo, poiché si ritroverà in questo aggiornamento, una edizione cartacea nuova nella copertina con l'inserimento della prima pubblicazione unita alla estesa parte aggiornata della ricerca scientifica Sul Tides e il JS/AO index e altri parametri importanti climatici. Una edizione italiana cartacea e digitale già fruibile a questo link Youcanprint e disponibile rapidamente sui molti link  online d'Italia per vendite cartacee e digitali, come presente anche su Amazon, e prenotabile/acquistabile su una moltitudine di librerie fisiche d'Italia! La versione cartacea è disponibille da subito, mentre la versione digitale dell'opera sarà fruibile a giorni. Ringraziando della stima e dell'interesse sulla nostra ricerca scientifica rivoluzionaria sul Tides>JS>AOindex>weather and climate, vi aspetto tutti nelle librerie online come nelle librerie fisiche di tutt'Italia, per non perdervi questo importante documento scientifico/divulgativo che apre una ricerca scientifica innovativa che rivoluzionerà tutto il settore meteorologico e climatico mondiale. Buona lettura a tutti!

Roberto M.

esperto clima/microclima e meteorologia

Team Explora

RomaUno tv  TV9/TeleMaremma

 

 

La primavera astronomica risentirà di un nuovo forte disturbo mareale intorno il 18 di Aprile.

 

La ricerca scientifica sul Tides e la sua influenza sul flusso troposferico sta proseguendo spedita all’estero, nonostante l’immobilismo delle comunità scientifiche nazionali, confermando la forte sensibilità dell’estero alla ricerca specie se con elevate potenzialità innovative in campo meteorologico e climatico come l’innovazione del Tides e la sua influenza meteoclimatica.

Uscirà a breve un articolo specifico sulla ricerca scientifica in concomitanza della pubblicazione imminente della edizione aggiornata del libro in italiano “Il futuro della terra è scritto nella Luna”, con l’inserimento di importanti approfondimenti e formule scientifiche del fisico e climatologo mondiale Dr. Clive Best con cui collaboro da quasi un anno.

Dopo un periodo di intenso lavoro di ricerca  torno a parlare con soddisfazione delle conferme ripetute della validità della ricerca scientifica sul Tides e la sua influenza sul flusso troposferico (jet Stream), che ha avuto altre soddisfazioni dalla lettura degli ultimi avvenimenti astronomici e atmosferici del mese passato (Marzo) e di questo inizio di Aprile 2015.

Intanto veramente impressionante il crollo della AO index  in concomitanza dello strong Tides e l’eclisse del 20 di marzo, palesando la esatta corrispondenza di eventi atmosferici vincolata alla forza mareale.

THE FUTURE OF THE EARTH IS WRITTEN ON THE MOON

                          "UPDATED EDITION" IN THE WORLD  YOUCANPRINT

We went ahead in scientific research, experimenting with the physical and mathematical calculations with variations of Tides, getting satisfaction and confirmations ever more rewarding.

The objective of this book in the English version, in print and digital in its first draft, is to encourage a wider diffusion of the research, involving foreign users, and to stimulate and intensify the interest and discussions on the web.

From this opportunity is born the collaboration in research on the Tides and Jet Stream with physicist and climate expert Dr. Clive Best

A revolutionary book on the natural climate change

A fascinating unconventional piece of research which proves the Global Warming dogma wrong

explains the real functioning of the Great climate machine of the Earth

announces the real danger of an imminent new glacial Era

warns human beings to respect the environment and the superior force of Nature

 

 

 Are we really going towards the global warming without return? Is the industrial pollution changing the climate on the Earth so much that it can determine the thawing of the eternal glaciers, the increase of the oceans and an irreversible catastrophe? Does the destiny of the world really depend on the Global Warming?

Roberto Madrigali, a meteoclimatologist supported by a team of authoritative scientists and by a considerable amount of scientific research, says no. And after years research supported by facts but ignored by many in the international scientific community, he sets down in black and white the results and prospects of his work which those who consider the Cartesian doubt the engine of the human knowledge should read with attention.

A book which can refound a science, the climatology, and through it write a new surprising yet non-reassuring page for the entire humanity. Because it deprives men of the power of intervening in any way about the planet climatic variations, thus returning this power to Nature. By doing this it deprives the theory of the Global Warming of the scientific effectiveness: the poisonous gases emitted in the air kill, polluting is a murder to the future of any human being, but all this has nothing to do with the climate changes on the Earth. A planet to which Nature today gives a new and imminent glacial era.

Marotzke & Forster Revisited

Marotzke & Forster(2015) found that 60 year trends in global surface temperatures are dominated by underlying climate physics. However, the  data show that climate models overestimate such 60 year decadel trends after 1940.

The recent paper in Nature by Jochem Marotzke & Piers Forster ‘Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends’ has gained much attention because it makes the claim that climate models are just fine and do not overstimate warming despite the observed 17 year hiatus since 1998. They attempt to show this by demonstrating that 15y trends in the Hadcrut4 data can be expected in CMIP5 models through quasi random internal variability, whereas any 60y trends are deterministic (anthropogenic). They identify ‘deterministic’ and ‘internal variability’ in the models through a multi-regression analysis with their known forcings as input.

\Delta{T} = \frac{\Delta{F}}{(\alpha + \kappa)} + \epsilon

where \Delta{F} is the forcing, \alpha is a climate feedback and \kappa is fraction of ocean heat uptake and \epsilon is random variation.

This procedure was criticised by Nic Lewis and generated an endless discussion on Climate Audit and Climate-Lab  about whether this procedure made statistical sense. However for the most part I think this is irrelevant as it is an analysis of the difference between models and not observational data.

Firstly the assumption that all internal variability is quasi-random is likely wrong. In fact there is clear evidence of a 60y oscillation in the GMST data probably related to the AMO/PDO – see realclimate. In this sense all models are likely wrong because they fail to include this non-random variation. Secondly as I will show below the observed 15y trends in Hadcrut4 are themselves not quasi-random. Thirdly I demonstrate that the observed 60y trends after 1945 are poorly described by the models and that by 1954 essentially all of the models predict higher trends than those observed. This means that the ‘deterministic’ component of all CMIP5 models do indeed overestimate  the GMST response from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Evidence of regular climate oscillations

Hadcrut4 anomaly data compared to a fit with a 60y oscillation and an underlying logarithmic anthropogenic term.

Hadcrut4 anomaly data compared to a fit with a 60y oscillation and an underlying logarithmic anthropogenic term.

Figure 1 shows that the surface data can be well described by a formula (described here) that includes both an net CO2 forcing term and a 60y oscillation as follows:

DT(t) = -0.3 + 2.5\ln{\frac{CO2(t)}{290.0}} + 0.14\sin(0.105(t-1860))-0.003 \sin(0.57(t-1867))-0.02\sin(0.68(t-1879))

The physical justification for such a 0.2C oscillation is the observed PDO/AMO which just like ENSO can effect global surface temperatures, but over a longer period. No models currently include any such  regular natural oscillations. Instead the albedo effect of aerosols and volcanoes have been tuned to agree with past GMST and follow its undulations. Many others have noted this oscillation in GMST, and even Michael Mann is now proposing that a downturn in the PDO/AMO is responsible for  the hiatus.

15y and 60y trends in observations and models

I have repeated the analysis described in M&F. I use linear regression fits over periods of 15y and 60y to the Hadcrut4 data and also to the fitted equation described above. In addition I have downloaded  42 CMIP5 model simulations of monthly surface temperature data from 1860 to 2014, calculated the monthly anomalies and then averaged them over each year. Then for each CMIP5 simulation  I calculated the 15y and 60y trends for increasing start year as described in M&F.

Figure 2 shows the calculated  15y trends in the H4 dataset compared to trends from the fit. For comparison we first show Fig 2a taken from  M&F below.

READ THE REST LINK PHYSICST CLIVE BEST>>>>Marotzke & Forster Revisited

IPCC Scientist’s dilemma

Posted on March 3, 2015 by Clive Best

The headlines used by most politicians and green pressure groups are based on the IPCC attribution of the human impact on the climate. Climate change policy and political soundbites can usually be traced back to the ‘Attribution statements’ contained in each of the 4 yearly asessment reports. The political pressure on scientists to forever increase their “certainty” about  man-made global warming is intense. The stumbling block is that the pause in warming since 1998 is getting harder to explain away and  is beginning to undermine this process. The more scientists try to explain the pause the more difficulties they find themselves getting into . The latest to make this mistake is Michael Mann who can now ‘explain’ the pause as being due to a natural cooling trend of the AMO/PDO since 2000, thereby masking underlying anthropogenic warming.

Mann’s identification of a natural oscillation component in global temperature data. NMO is a net combination of AMO and PDO. Note the amplitude of the oscillation is 0.4C

Mann is quite right that the PDO/AMO may likely be the cause of the hiatus, but by accepting this possibility he unfortunately  drives a coach and horses through the AR5 attribution analysis described in chapter 10. This is because the probability analysis used there depends on natural variability being precisely zero since 1951.

First let’s look at the ever growing IPCC certainty about AGW since the first assesment in 1990

  • 1990 AR1: ‘The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more. ‘
  • 1995 AR2: “The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate”
  • 2001 AR3: “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.”
  • 2007 AR4: “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”
  • 2013 AR5: “It is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in GMST from 1951 to 2010. The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period.”However is this increased confidence actually justified in view of the fact there has been essentially no surface warming at all  since 1998?  The AR5 attribution analysis is all based on figure 10.5 shown below and the seemingly small error bar on the Anthropogenic component ANT. Despite the much higher uncertainty in the two individual anthropogenic components GHG and aerosols, the ‘fingerprinting’ analysis can supposedly isolate ANT with a high degree of certainty. This fingerpriniting is extremely obscure and is not at all well explained in the text of chapter 10. Even Science of Doom is not convinced by their arguments. However let’s be generous and assume that they are correct and the error on ANT can  indeed be shown to be that small. The real problem they now have is that the probability that ANT and Observed agree depends on the assumption that Internal Variability is 0.0 ± 0.1 C – but we just saw that this is now increasingly unlikely.
  • So 23 years of intense research has supposedly increased scientific consensus from an agnostic position (AR1), a discernable signal (AR2), through likely (66%-90%)  in AR3, to very likely (90-99%) in AR4, and finally to extremely likely (>99% certain) in AR5. This ratcheting up in scientific certainty, egged on by various pressure groups has underpinned the  increasing political pressure on worldwide governments to abandon fossil fuels. Taking a step backwards now is unthinkable.>>>>>>>READ THE REST LINK PHISICS Dr. Clive Best

  • La ricerca scientifica sul Tides e le conseguenze sul Jet Stream e gli indici tele connettivi.

     

    La ricerca scientifica sulla forza gravitazionale/mareale (Tides) con effetto combinato della Luna e il Sole sulla massa d’aria imponente circumpolare del Jet Stream (flusso troposferico) è sempre più presa in seria considerazione all’estero, con il contributo prestigioso internazionale dal punto di vista scientifico del fisico e climatologo inglese mondiale Dr. Clive Best.

    Una collaborazione prestigiosa e importantissima, che ha aperto da quasi un anno i confini internazionali a questa nostra ricerca scientifica sul Tides e gli effetti conseguenti sulla corrente a getto circumpolare della libera atmosfera.

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